TV3 & Roy Morgan shock poll: Winners, Losers & Predictions

Another set of polls showing Luxon’s luck holding out and more evidence the Māori Party are going to be the King/Queen maker which ACT and National love.

After saving NZ from Covid and making the wealthiest Kiwis $1Tillion richer, Labour seems surprised no one loves Jacinda anymore.

Those living week to week wonder how Jacinda  is defining the word ‘transformative’.

There are of course Winners and Losers.

WINNERS:

Chris Luxon – Christian Lex Luther is fucking killing it bro! Never before has such mediocrity been given such a stranding ovation! He’s the right wing David Shearer, a Captain Mumblefuck who can barely go 30seconds without shooting himself in the foot, and yet here he is soaring in the Polls. And that’s the point isn’t it? There is a chunk of NZ who hate Jacinda with an almost gleaming animosity and no matter how hopeless her opponent is, they will fanatically back him! In fact, it’s because he’s such a blundering clown that they fiercely support him, it’s like a political cut off your nose to spite your face. National voters are saying, ‘We hate Jacinda so much we will elect a bland CEO with zero intellectual curiosity and bare competence in the knowledge he’ll fuck things up way worse than they are now, but fuck Jacinda’. This is who we are now as a people.

Wellington Bureaucracy – What most NZers don’t understand about NZ politics is that winning power is VERY different from managing power. If you don’t arrive on day one with with a clear legislative agenda and enough mana to intimidate the Wellington Bureaucracy, you get nothing done. Representative Democracy in NZ is a masquerade so that you will participate and give it legitimacy, the truth is that the Wellington Bureaucracy runs the country and their middle class neoliberal pandering decides policy implementation, not the feckless and easily manipulated Ministers. Labour didn’t expect to win 2017 and they didn’t expect to win an MMP majority in 2020, so they’ve had no real 100 day legislative agenda to ram through and as such have been stymied ever step by the Wellington Bureaucracy. Jacinda may be kind and she may really want transformative change, but if you don’t come to Wellington with a clear plan as to how to force the Bureaucracy to implement your manifesto, then transformative change becomes a virtue signal of aspiration rather than actual policy. The Wellington Bureaucracy have escaped having to lose any of their fiefdoms and will just coast the next 18months till the election to welcome the change of management teams and more empty promises of achievement.

Winston Peters & NZ First – Is Trevor Mallard secretly working for NZ First? Winston must have orgasmed when he saw Mallard had trespassed him, he will milk this outrage until its dry, NZ First are so back in power and will reach 5% on Election Day 2023. The only thing that will stop this is if the Grim Reaper personally intervenes and takes Winston’s life himself, and even then, Winston will take his death to court and legally challenge it. Welcome back Winnie, it doesn’t matter what part of the political spectrum you are from, you trespassing Politicians from Parliament is egregious and outrageous.

Trevor Mallard – Mallard could eat a kitten live on Seven Sharp & Labour and the Greens would blame the kitten for being delicious – that’s how untouchable Mallard is after he saved them all from the smelly lumpenproletariat Nazis on Parliament’s Lawns during the Dumb Lives Matter protest.

Māori Party – Despite their really flakey stuff, they are increasingly the only way Labour + Greens gets to 51%. Desperately needs JTs leadership or else their King maker/ Queen maker status will be exploited mercilessly by ACT.

Leo Molloy – As Auckland turns against Labour, Leo Molloy’s campaign for Mayor builds and the Left should start panicking because the symbolism of the Left losing Auckland a year before the general election will burn.

Labour Party – Despite another gruelling month of negative media, Labour still somehow manage to hold onto 38%, that’s pretty amazing and still testimony that they have a fighting chance in 2023.

 

LOSERS:

Labour + Green activists – Their ability to alienate potential voters is a super power. Kiwis despise woke activists screaming TRANSPHOBIC RACIST SEXIST at them sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo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much they will elect a candidate as useless as Luxon just to spite Labour & the Greens.

Green Party – As predicted by TDB, the Greens have disappeared up their own arsehole and have pushed for a New Non Binary Co-leadership Model. Most people will not understand this, they will think it means the other co-leader is Trans. The perception that the Greens are just a Feminist party with some environmentalism thrown in could cause the Green Male vote to either transfer on mass to Labour, or be tempted by Winston’s machismo, Christian Lex Luthor’s eager Dad routine or stand up comedian David Seymour’s sick burns. The Greens will herald their non-binary co-leadership model as progress, the wider electorate will see it as emblematic of a woke dogma that alienates far more than it can recruit at a time of peak economic anxiety. Pure temple politics is fine until all the people you’ve denied into the temple are far larger than you can ever hope to be. James will go, the new non binary co-leadership model will be adopted, 10 000 people will like it on Twitter and it will lead to the Greens limping home with 7% in 2023. Chloe as a leader on her own could get 15%, winning it through a gerrymandered non-gender binary co-leadership model will rob her of the mana she deserves. It just hurts all the time being a Green Party voter now. What self respecting male would vote for this blancmange of virtue signalling woke dogma?

Beneficiaries – If National and ACT get in, they will destroy beneficiaries lives. If Labour remains in, life will be barely liveable. It’s the difference between sleeping rough in your car and living in a motel crammed between gang members and child offenders.

Renters – If Nation and ACT get in, they will hand disgusting powers to the Landlords to screw you over so that your only options are sleeping rough in your car or living in a motel crammed between gang members and child offenders. If Labour remain you still won’t be able to afford rent and your options will be sleeping rough in your car or living in a motel crammed between gang members and child offenders.

First home buyers – Either party wins, you’ll be sleeping rough in your car or living in a motel crammed between gang members and child offenders.

Working Classes – You are fucked either way.

David Seymour – Spare a thought for poor David Seymour. He is infinitely smarter than Chris Luxon and yet he has to play second fiddle to this Christian Lex Luther clown who can’t answer questions for longer than 30 seconds without shooting himself in the foot. David has to pretend all the support rushing away from ACT to National doesn’t hurt, and it’s particularly tough because it’s all free market dynamics at work. The Free Market should never reward the mediocrity of Chris Luxon, yet it is! For Free Marketers like David, National going up while ACT goes down is like finding out God doesn’t like you!

 

PREDICTIONS:

NZ First are back, Mallard has gifted Winston his news oxygen lifeline all the way to the 2023 election and it’s safe to say he’ll return not wanting any deal with Labour, this sets up a National+ACT+NZ First Government vs a Labour+Green+Māori Party Government. John Tamihere’s leadership will be looked upon to create stability in a Party that has become well known for its flakiness.

Chloe will become co leader of the Greens but the freakishly woke new non binary co-leadership model  will rob her of the full mana she deserves as it will be seen as tokenism and not the new voice of a new generation.

Luxon will continue to stumble and fumble and keep gaining ground.

 

CONCLUSION:

One of the reasons why I think Labour and the Greens have lost so much support is because their supporters are nasty spiteful clowns and via proxification, people end up hating them and by proxy, the Labour and Green parties.

I’m to the Left of Lenin yet all Social media has taught me is how to hate woke activists as much as I hate Qanon Incel anti-vcxx lunatics. This alienation of male voters by the Left is playing out in the Polling and as the woke Green activists and Tribal Labour supporters get angrier and angrier, they’ll alienate more and more male voters.

Just consider this, Luxon is a fucking hopeless and woeful candidate who can’t do 20 minute interviews. His polices will only make the economic stresses worse and he has no real solutions to any of our societal troubles YET this turd rolled in glitter is preferable to voting Labour and Greens for many men.

Why is that?

The Right look for recruits and the Left look for traitors and right now, the right are winning.

To win 2023, the Left need to do far more bread and butter issues and far less pronouns and militant Te Reo pronunciation.

 

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