The Daily Blog Geopolitical Predictions 2022

If you thought 2021 was bad, it’s nothing compared to the perfect storm of black swans looking to land in 2022.

A culmination of bubbles look set to pop in ways that could rapidly destabilize everyone and everything.

Here are the International TDB political predictions 2022.

China – All eyes will be on China.

Xi is moving from crazed dictator into crazed God mode.

Our complex relationship with China is actually very simple. We are desperate to sell basic bitch milk powder and China is rich enough to exploit our desperation in the hope of gaining what they really want – our water.

China buys the National Party out and buys the Labour Party out so as to keep their interests safe.

Culturally National never talk about Chinese influence because their farmer, banker and speculator voters need that Chinese money and the Left don’t talk about Chinese influence because it’s xenophobic.

China’s cultural and economics crackdowns are increasingly repressive and their ongoing saber rattling over Hong Kong and Taiwan alongside their rapid military deployment and weapon upgrades all point to a China becoming drunk on their own power.

We need to decouple urgently from China economically while acknowledging China’s main influence in our country is through intimidation of their diaspora living here. As the recent investigation into Chinese spies in our Universities highlights, NZ culture needs to embrace and connect with our Chinese-New Zealand community so that they feel more loved by us than fear CCP activists.

Economically China is in deep trouble with EverGrande,  Kaisa, and now the Shimao Group all imploding. Industrial profit growth has tumbled and China’s zero tolerance of Covid continues to shut down ports and exacerbate supply chain stresses.
To distract from the economic slump expect aggressive symbolic acts.
 
With the Winter Olympics in February, a symbolic and harsh crack down on Hong Kong will reassert the CCPs authority, but expect that after February. They would be mad to do it before the Olympics. Any move into Hong Kong will be at the same time as any invasion of the Ukraine by Putin.
 
In terms of a serious attack on Taiwan, my guess is Xi will wait until the CCPs 20th conference in November to try any possible invasion. If he is granted the his powers of Mao, all bets are off the table. 
 
China has a huge advantage with hypersonic missiles, any invasion of Taiwan will use these as a warning to America.
 
Expect China to use its failing economic environment to trade punish critical countries, as the weakest member of 5 Eyes, NZ will be very vulnerable to this.

Continuing questions over the Covid lab leak theory will not go away.
America – 2021 started with Trump attempting a coup at the Capital Building and spent the rest of the year being protected by Fox News Republicans from being held to account. Biden’s appalling handling of Afghanistan and his inability to get meaningful change through because his own Party is blocking policy has combined at a time when America is horribly divided over Covid mandates.
Legendary Democrat strategist James Carville blames “stupid wokeness” and is critical of defund the Police and wanting to remove Abraham Lincoln’s name from schools. He argues most people are more concerned with economics than social justice mantras that come across as cult like to the middle voter.
The Virginia Gubernatorial win for the Republicans in late 2021 is a bellwether for the midterms in November which looks likely to hand the Republicans the House of Representatives, this will be a dangerous precondition for Trump’s 2024 run.
If you look at who Trump is endorsing, there are many low level electoral scrutineers who he could call upon to defer a result to the House of Representatives if he alleges electoral fraud.
This is surely the danger.
I think Trump intends to steal the 2024 election by calling on election scrutineers to defer the result to the House where Republicans have a midterm majority and sends the Democrats onto the streets in rage. Trump will use that violence to justify martial law and an endless reign.
Abortion rights are about to be damaged thanks to Trump’s stacking of Judges.
Russia – If Putin invades Ukraine it will be after the Winter Olympics so that Xi can crack down on Hong Kong at the same time. It looks from the build up of 175 000 troops on the Ukrainian border that any attack will be to damage and destroy Ukrainian military assets as opposed to a long standing occupation and territory grab. Putin will taunt Europe via their new dependence on Russian gas. Expect a lot more cyber attacks.
Israel – Building more settlements on the Golan Heights will intensify anger alongside their usual brutality over the Palestinians, but the big issue will be if they launch a preemptive strike against Iran as they race towards building their first nuke. If they do, this will be a spark to a far larger eruption of violence in the middle east.
Australia – Bush fire season could see NZ skies glowing orange again as extra rain fall since the last catastrophic bush fires now become kindling for a new heat wave.
Afghanistan – The Taliban’s main source of income is heroin, expect to see a tsunami of high quality cheap smack arriving into Europe creating  addiction misery and overdoses. As the country implodes, expect waves of refugees fleeing.
Global economy – Covid has seen the main banks of the West sink trillions more into quantitive easing to deal with the economic whiplash the pandemic has created and in NZ we saw with the pumping of billions into the pockets of property speculators how our own house prices have skyrocketed.

This game of printing money to pump into property and stock market speculation to create a false illusion of wealth can continue playing as long as hyper inflation doesn’t overturn the apple cart.

But what happens if it does?

What happens if hyper inflation does suddenly explode out of nowhere?

To date all the inflationary pressures caused by this mass printing has led to driving up property prices and stock markets without touching the essentials and basics of life, but one of the impacts of Covid has been to shut down the global supply chains which is now creating scarcity of products that can’t get to market because they are bottlenecked at a Port.

This seems insanely dangerous because all those hyper inflation pressures will immediately jump to the very basics everyone uses.

Your Kiwisaver going up and your property value climbing is one thing, paying $15 for a loaf of bread and $20 for milk is completely another.

To date the cost rises have been in things poor people have to pay, transport, rent and gas. That means food will be cut, hungry people get angry quickly.

After every great pandemic throughout history, the peasant revolt in the 1300s, the London riots of the 1600s and the social unrest right after the Influenza pandemic of 1918, society always goes through intense social change brought on by the economic collapse lockdowns generate.

If the bottlenecks of supply chains are blocked unleashing a tsunami of hyper inflation on the goods everyone requires for life, Central Banks will have no choice but to lift interest rates to desperately attempt to curtail that hyper inflation, which of course will mean the ocean of low interest debt that has been created to fuel hyper speculation will suddenly start feeling the true gravity of trillions in borrowing.

This is the new ‘normal’. Constant eruptions of external global disruptions that cause widespread damage.  The climate crisis will simply exacurbate these economic meltdowns.

Curveball prediction: Technology breakthroughs – AI, quantum computing, hypersonic missiles and Space weapons are all on the agenda as America, Russia and China all compete for supremacy. Expect more robots with guns.
Curveball prediction: Queen dying – If the Queen dies it will cause a lot of reflection in the Commonwealth towards Republicanism. Expect Charles to seize the Throne and be a far more radical environmental  voice than his Mother. The only open question is how Megan Markle will manage to make it all about her.
Curveball prediction: UFOs – We saw crazy unexplainable footage of UFOs this year – any new revelations will force the planet to acknowledge we are not alone. This could turn everything on its head.

 

Conclusion: 

Shit is going to get way worse in 2022.

With China our new Economic Overlord, what hurts them hurts us.

The building blocks of globalized free market lowest cost capitalism is fracturing as the model can’t keep up with demand while decarbonising.

Those fractures are becoming impossible to ignore…

Chinese magnesium shortage: Global car industry to grind to a halt within weeks amid ‘catastrophic’ halt

The world’s largest carmakers and other users of aluminium could be forced to halt production within weeks amid a “catastrophic” shortage of magnesium across Europe.

Magnesium is a key material used in the production of aluminium alloys, which are used in everything from car parts to building materials and food packaging.

China has a near-monopoly on global magnesium manufacturing, accounting for 87 per cent of production, but the Chinese government’s efforts to reduce domestic power consumption amid rising energy prices have slowed output to a trickle since September 20.

In Shaanxi and Shanxi provinces, the world’s main magnesium production hubs, 25 plants had to shut down and five further plants slashed production by 50 per cent as a result of the power cuts.

…if China’s domestic real estate bubble implodes, investors with external holdings may have to sell enmasse causing a glut.

How much of NZs housing market consists of Chinese speculators?

Looks like we might find out.

The economic threats makes the current sabre rattling military threats look friendly.

Will China Really Invade Taiwan?

In March, Adm. Philip Davidson, the outgoing commander of U.S. military forces in the Pacific, told a Senate panel that China posed a “manifest” threat of invading Taiwan “in the next six years.”

No senior official had ever issued such a specific or urgent warning about the fate of the tiny democratic island 100 miles off of China’s eastern coast. But since Davidson’s testimony, boatloads of military officers, active and retired, have sounded similar alarm bells. Some congressmen, such as Republican  Sen. Tom Cotton, have even called for recognizing Taiwan as an independent nation and making NATO-like commitments to defend it from invasion—a step that would reverse 42 years of U.S. policy, further destabilize relations with China, and possibly precipitate war.

At the same time, a debate has erupted among more scholarly analysts over whether China’s Communist leaders really want to invade Taiwan—and, if they do, whether the Chinese military is capable of doing so now or in the near future. With few exceptions, the pessimists tend to be military officers, who measure the balance of power by which side has more or less of what sorts of weapons systems, while the less-panicked tend to be experts on China’s history and politics who view the statistics in a broader context.

Hyper inflation, economic meltdown and a planet stumbling from a global pandemic that originated in China.

Look at this…

…In 2010, the 388 richest individuals owned more wealth than half of the entire human population on Earth

By 2015, this number was reduced to only 62 individuals

In 2018, it was 42

In 2019, it was down to only 26 individuals who own more wealth than 3.8 billion people.

And now in 2021, 20 people own more than 50% of the entire planet.

This isn’t democracy, this is a feudal plutocracy on a burning Earth!

These are all the ingredients for conflict and a hot war.

One of the most concerning elements of all of this occurred before the US election when Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, contacted his a Chinese to tell them America would not attack them.

If China was convinced Trump wanted a war in 2020, they will certainly think he’ll start one in 2024. Their hawks will be demanding force before then.

Right now. All roads lead to war, economic Armageddon and environmental meltdown.

Here’s Tom with the weather.

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Original Source: https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2022/01/02/the-daily-blog-geopolitical-predictions-2022/

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