Why this European heatwave is so scary

For two weeks, computer models teased the possibility of Britain reaching 40C this week, a level unsurpassed since at least 1850 – and probably in more than 6000 years. Meteorologists gazed at these model forecasts in disbelief, sceptical that such predictions would come true.

Six days ago, the UK Met Office put the odds of hitting 40C at only 10%.

But the seemingly unlikely model forecasts proved correct. London Heathrow was among six locations in the United Kingdom to top 40C on Tuesday (Wednesday NZT), shattering Britain’s all-time temperature record.

This is the latest example of how human-caused climate changeis pushing temperatures to levels previously considered unfathomable – faster than many can imagine.

Look.

Sure.

Apocalyptic Heat Wave is melting Europe.

And the data tells us that in barely 3 centuries since the beginning of the Industrial Age, we have set off CO2 levels not seen in 2.6million years and yes because these processes normally take hundreds of thousands of years to build and once triggered the tipping points built into the Earth’s biosphere can cause extreme weather events in the space of decades, s-u-r-e, all of that BUT as long as the Methane in Siberia and on the Ocean floor don’t start dissolving and causes an enormous methane burp that sends temperatures jumping 10 degrees in the space of a decade, as long as that doesn’t happen the Greenland glaciers won’t melt, sending a cascade of fresh water into the Labrador Sea Oceanic pump that transfers heat from the tropics to Europe via the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and accidentally trigger an ice age in the Northern Hemisphere as Europe freezes over.

Oh wait, Siberia…

Climate crisis: Siberian heatwave led to new methane emissions, study says

…Ocean methane plumes…

Bubble plumes off Washington, Oregon suggest warmer ocean may be releasing frozen methane

…Greenland melting…

The amount of Greenland ice that melted last weekend could cover West Virginia in a foot of water

…and Oceanic Conveyer current failing?

Climate crisis: Scientists spot warning signs of Gulf Stream collapse

…oh, all those things are actually in play an in motion and we aren’t going to stop them.

The IPCC report has always infamously been conservative and underplayed or simply ignored the impacts of naturally occurring feedback loops that once crossed represent  tipping points from which no technological advance can mitigate.

What is most concerning about our response to the Covid epidemic (which is exacerbated by overpopulation and bio-habitat collapse), the mass flooding we just experienced over the weekend in NZ or even the American forest fires is that these extraordinary events that we are totally ill equipped to cope with are all occurring at a time of relative peace. How would these services cope with a plethora of events erupting at climate crisis speed on numerous fronts?

We can barely cope with the first wave of disruptions, how on earth will we cope when the enormity of events eclipse these small ones?

My contention is that in a future like that voters will throw their weight behind any party promising radical proposals.

That’s why I argue that Fortress Aotearoa is simply a matter of when not if.

The current political spectrum in New Zealand can not radically adapt fast enough to adopt the changes we must make if we are to survive the climate crisis. It will require a radical Political Movement that elects a Party to implement Fortress Aotearoa…

• Move away from intensive farming and look to become domestically self sustainable in terms of food.
• Immediately ban all water exports.
• Empower local communities to make local decisions and set up resilience programs.
• 5 year Parliamentary term so Governments can actually plan for change.
• Upper and Lower House (Upper House 50-50 split between Māori & Pakeha that can hold up legislation if unhappy about Treaty issues)
• Massive investment into R&D from Government with the understanding research is to benefit NZ first before sold offshore.
• Large scale increase in Navy, Army & Airforce.
• Mass limiting of tourism numbers with huge increased tourist taxes.
• Only citizens can vote.
• Sustainable immigration and an end to exploitative migrant workers.
• Resettlement Programms for all pacific island neighbours.
• Increase refugee in take to 10 000 per year
• Fully funded public services focused on real welfare of people.
• Mass Green housing rebuild.
• 100% renewable energy for entire country.
• Massive tree planting across previous farming land.
• Wholesale re-write of state services act to end commercial values.
• Investment into basic pharmaceutical production.
• Financial transaction tax
• Wealth tax
• Multinational tax
• Inheritance tax
• Capitalist monopolies in energy, transport and finance have to be brought into public ownership and control. They should be subject to democratic plans drawn up by the whole community. Workers should have much stronger decision making powers within them.
• All economic sectors to be made take steps needed to decarbonise the economy as much as is needed to reach zero net emissions by 2030.
• Free and frequent public transport on electric buses and/or trains in all main cities.
• Health care and education for life should be free and universally accessible.
• Welfare, pensions, child allowances, should be universal wherever possible.
• Public housing at fixed and affordable rents should be a right of all not just the desperately poor.
• All workers should have a right to a job and the workweek reduced with no loss of pay to make that possible.
• Local communes should be supported for control and delivery of as many functions of the centralised state as possible – including housing, education, health care.
• Local communes to support cooperative forms of production of food, solar and wind energy,  electric transport, and media.

On a rapidly warming planet, NZ will increasingly be the life boat for Earth and the tyranny of our distance will become our blessing.

Pretending that we can ‘stop’ the climate crisis cascade is sophistry, we require radical reform and adaptation now.

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