The 2023 MMP overload scenario

We have lived through a political period of time since MMP that has managed to dilute and temper the idealogical extremes of Left/Right politics in NZ.

The need to compromise and pull punches is fundamental to the MMP dynamic HOWEVER that completely gets thrown out the window if there is no political centre left.

The political centre has been hollowed out so much under MMP that Labour and National are almost indistinguishable in their acquiescence to neoliberal mantra.

The far left and far right have enormous pent up political tension that will rupture once Labour or National are dependent on their numbers for a majority.

These highly polarised times have the potential to create an outcome that is hated regardless of which side wins.

The coming economic recession will be as much a crisis as Covid and will require a lockdown level commitment from an all of Government approach.
Into this febrile landscape of social media hate algorithms comes a highly polarised electorate & I think MMP dynamics could end up causing enormous ramifications electorally.
There is a nightmare scenario where everyone participates and then hates the splintered unmanageable outcome.
MMP OVERHANG: We don’t appreciate how much protest ACT support in Auckland there is after the lockdowns. Leo Molloy is currently harvesting it and I think ACT will too, they were able to get 10% in an electorate as blue as Tauranga and I think we will see an Auckland protest vote that votes National as their candidate, but ACT as the Party vote. I think the combined effect of the Right polarising around ACT will fuel the MMP overhang dynamics which will push the majority required higher because of more MPs.
INTERNATIONAL VOTERS: Traditionally this has favoured the Greens & Labour, but the border closures have generated a tsunami of hate and spite from those locked out all generated towards Labour and Labour’s allies, I see the vast majority of this international vote going against Labour and the Greens this election.
MĀORI ELECTORATES & TACTICAL VOTING ON MĀORI ROLL: If the Māori Party pick up another electorate plus increase their party vote they could gain more MPs because of the over hang feature. National also wants to run candidates this year so could pick up disaffected Māori votes, but if Labour are to retain power it will have to be via some Māori Party pick up in these electorates and a strong Party vote for labour in the Māori electorates as well.
NZ First breaches 5%: Everything is thrown into chaos if NZ First breach 5%.
To save Jacinda, Left jettison Greens who don’t cross 5% but win Auckland Central: In the turning tides of political fortune, disgruntled Left voters who have drifted Green could come back to save Jacinda and with no international voters to save them, the Greens slip beneath 5% but Chloe brings them back in via Auckland Central.
Sub 5% wasted vote: The anti-mandate dumb lives matter protests are seeking political representation on multiple fringe front, none of which can breach 5% on their own but will see a vast chunk of people voting but gaining no representation.
The 2023 MMP overload scenario:
I think the splintering of the political spectrum in the face of a rigged capitalism that serves only the polluters, banks and speculators is a real possibility.
You could have a polarised right that almost gets to 50% combined with a NZ First whose inclusion either side only generates a 1 vote majority combined with a fractured and frustrated Left combined with international voters turning against the Left combined with lots of angry voters who won’t gain any representation.
An overhung Parliament including Labour, NZ First, Māori Party, National, ACT and the Greens where the only majority is 1 vote regardless of composition will the worst of all worlds and become utterly unmanageable at an economic recession demanding leadership.

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