The Bank of England expects UK economy to tank after inflation peaks at 13% in the fourth quarter this year and remain elevated throughout 2023 despite the economy entering a recession in the fourth quarter this year as well.
The combination of elevated inflation and recession is the classic definition of Stagflation which plagued capitalist economies in the late 1970s and early 1980s.
The end result of the period of repeated capitalist economic crises since 2008 is that the UK economy will emerge 25% smaller than it would have if it had followed the trends prior to 2008. Of course the Tory government is trying to make working people pay the price of their systems chronic failures provoking a massive strike wave to achieve wage increases to at least match inflation.
The Bank commentary published Thursday that accompanied an 50pt rise in the official cash rate was imply scary:
Inflationary pressures in the United Kingdom and the rest of Europe have intensified significantly since the May Monetary Policy Report and the MPC’s previous meeting. That largely reflects a near doubling in wholesale gas prices since May, owing to Russia’s restriction of gas supplies to Europe and the risk of further curbs. As this feeds through to retail energy prices, it will exacerbate the fall in real incomes for UK households and further increase UK CPI inflation in the near term. CPI inflation is expected to rise more than forecast in the May Report, from 9.4% in June to just over 13% in 2022 Q4, and to remain at very elevated levels throughout much of 2023, before falling to the 2% target two years ahead.
GDP growth in the United Kingdom is slowing. The latest rise in gas prices has led to another significant deterioration in the outlook for activity in the United Kingdom and the rest of Europe. The United Kingdom is now projected to enter recession from the fourth quarter of this year. Real household post-tax income is projected to fall sharply in 2022 and 2023, while consumption growth turns negative.
A Bloomberg opinion piece by John Authers noted August 5 that:
Despite being so negative about the economy, the BoE still felt obliged to hike rates because the inflationary pressure is so great. And bear in mind that the UK is less exposed to natural gas prices than several of the bigger EU economies, such as Germany, Italy and the Netherlands.
To show the scale of the long-term damage that has already accumulated, and which the central bank believes is about to be further compounded, this chart from BNP Paribas shows the current forecast compared to the trends before the Global Financial Crisis, and the comparison to the trend of growth between the GFC and the pandemic.
If the BoE proves right, then British gross domestic product in 2025 will be a third less than it was reasonable to expect given the growth rate before the financial crisis:
