Latest Curia Poll: Luxon vs Roe vs Wade – Winners, Losers & Predictions

Boom, as TDB predicted, Roe vs Wade did have an impact on Luxon and the political spectrum continues to fracture!



The Spinoff are copying our narrative, the mainstream media are following it and finally after almost 6 months of TDB pointing this dynamic out, every political pundit worth their salt accepts our premise that the 2023 election will be fought over who NZ voters fear most, National/ACT Government or a Labour/Green/Māori Party Government.

Folks you can read it here first or read it in the mainstream media 3 months later.

There are of course political winners and losers from the latest Poll.


Māori voters: With JT as the new president of the Māori Party, Māoridom have been given the clear wink that Labour and the Māori Party can work together and this is incredibly powerful. No electorate votes on block the way Māoridom can and with their Māori seats plus MMP, the dynamics of overhang can generate here. We will see more split voting between Māori Party and Labour voters than we have ever seen. In half a decade, Willie Jackson and the Labour Māori Caucus has been able to get $3billion in extra funding, that’s twice as much as the entire Waitangi Tribunal have managed to gain for Māori! Māoridom know they will never get that under National or ACT. The Māori Party are well on their way to being the Queenmaker.

Abortion: The huge slump in Chris Luxon’s support was always going to happen when women voters realised how much of a Handmaids Tale level anti-abortionist he was. Abortion is the real winner in this poll.

David Seymour & ACT: He can look liberal on Abortion because ACT are uber liberal on it while ignoring all the policy he’s promoting to start a race war.

Greens: They have learned the secret to Green Party success, shut the fuck up and say nothing alienatingly woke and people might vote for them.

Labour: Despite wall to wall hate coverage by the right wing mainstream media, they are still 34.7% AND Jacinda is 41.2% in preferred leadership polling.

NZ First: Winston is still out there, on just under 3% he’s still in striking distance!



Christian Lex Luther: Chris Luxon has had a bad day at the office. His personal preferences took an enormous blow and that’s why you saw so much National Party pushback at images like this…

…they knew it had hurt him.

Christian Right: Turns out God doesn’t want you to have political power either!



There are few single issues that have the power to cross 5% threshold.

Feral lunatic anti-abortionism is one of them.

You forget in the city how regressive parts of NZ are.

Get out past the city limits and I’m always surprised to see all those anti-abortion billboards so proudly erected on local land.

If the fringe right who usually waste as sub 5% vote could unite, their catch cry would be more restrictive rules if not a total ban.

If a NZ Conservative + Brian Tamaki Party merged and crossed the 5% threshold and were necessary to form the next Government, National and ACT would have to negotiate.

Either way, Roe vs Wade IS going to have a role in the 2023 election and the Right could manage to use MMP in a way that defeats the Left for two terms.

There is enormous polarisation and frustration at the political spectrum driven by social media hate algorithms that is driving a subtle violence that is ever growing in its malice and ignorance.

People are ripe for manipulation and their pain will only fuel this feverishness.

We. Must. Fight. Back.

We are not going to allow far right American Christian madness to manifest here.

We can’t.

The Left has to start viewing the 2023 election as the existential threat it is.

A National/ACT Government would be radical enough, a National/ACT/Fringe Government would be fucking terrifying.


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