I want to believe the great KBB Chess master has blundered.
I want to believe hubris and Russian pride has led Putin to believe a quick victory was in reach and that this cluster fuck top has all been an implosion of his sophistry and ego.
I hope all the experts who were previously predicting he wouldn’t invade the Ukraine, yet who are all so suddenly sure of a tactical blunder are right.
I really hope he’s fucked up and miscalculated.
Yet, something else is here in all this that still makes me terribly nervous.
What if this stalemate is by design?
What if this is Putin’s aim.
What if this is Putin’s plan?
January 27th, 2022, just after the coup in Kazakstan (which the Russian’s blamed on the West), Putin cut a grim figure placing the Wreath at the Commemorations at the Battle for Leningrad.
Putin seemed to have the weight of history upon him, you could feel the 1000 years of orthodox Christianity which he slavishly adheres to holding him to a torturous equation.
What if Putin wants an escalation?
What if a radioactive wasteland between him and NATO is a boundary no Western Army could cross.
What if Putin pushed an awkward and under prepared Army into a stalemate where use of battlefield Nukes becomes the outcome?
What if Putin has pushed all this way because he wants Chaos globally, because he can open up fronts in the Middle East from skyrocketing bread prices, can open up fronts in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Iran. Can damage European gas supplies.
What if for Putin this stalemate is exactly what he wanted in order to escalate?
I want to write Putin’s Ukrainian invasion off as a mad gamble whose arrogance has caused a conflict he will lose, but I have feared Putin ever since the rumour that he bombed the Moscow apartments in 1999 to escalate the war in Chechnya.
He is not to be underestimated.
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