Budget 2022: Winners, Losers & Predictions

Grant was happy, Journalists who get locked down with Treasury Officials looked confused, a weary frightened population held out their begging bowl and asked ‘more’?

Budget 2022 was an attempt to offset the crippling cost of living crisis and it certainly did that for the middle classes, the working classes and beneficiaries however can go fuck themselves.

I’m going to send my 3 fiddy in GrantBux on tobacco, alcohol and gambling. If only Labour had decriminalised cannabis!

There are of course political winners and losers

WINNERS

Grant Robertson: He pulled off a cost of living crisis budget funded from the closure of the COVID-19 Response and Recovery Fund. It’s big and attempts to be everything to everyone which will of course disappoint most. He is a Finance Minister at the heights of his power which is disappointing news for everyone left on the bottom. Sadly this is Robbo at his best I’m afraid. Sorry everyone.

 

Willie Jackson and the Labour Māori Caucus: No one has managed to force this Government to give another billion to Māori quite like Willie Jackson. The Labour Māori Caucus has never been this strong and this is the 5th budget in a row where Willie has negotiated a billion for Māori in targeted funding. In 5 years Willie Jackson has managed to get almost 5 times the budget that NZ has paid out in Treaty negotiations, has there ever been a more effective negotiator for Māori? NEVER! Which is why Willie will now have a target painted on his back.

 

Middle Class NZ without kids ‘GrantBux’ : FREE MONEY! Who doesn’t like $350? Will it offset the cost of living crisis? FUCK NO, in fact most people will already have spent this well before it ever gets paid out, but hey, ‘3 fiddy in GrantBux’. Yay!

 

Disabled: For a community as huge and invisible as the Disabled, there is some good news re representation and political voice, but the naked truth is baseline benefits for the disabled have not risen and their lives are made immeasurably more difficult with the ongoing paper work to prove they are disabled.

 

LOSERS

The saddest boy in the world with the loneliest robot

David Seymour & ACT: He’s had a rush of blood to the head with his brutal alternative budget where he wants to take a rusty chainsaw to amputate 5 entire Ministry’s plus the Human Rights Commission. Economist Shamubeel Eaqub slammed Seymour’s comments on Budget 2022, calling them “economically illiterate” and lies about the economy.

As The Daily Blog has been pointing out since the election, the extreme hard right policy of ACT is simply not appreciated by the majority of kiwis.

But it’s there, oh sweet Jesus is it there.

That’s just the start…

  • Cut and freeze the Minimum wage
  • Interest back on all student loans
  • No Kiwsaver subsidy
  • Cancel winter energy payment
  • Dump all climate crisis legislation
  • no more best start payments for families with new borns
  • cut welfare payments
  • no tax credits for research and development
  • cuts to working for families
  • $7b a year cut in public services
  • Abolish Maori seats
  • Abolish Human Rights Commission

This is Romper Stomper Hard Right insanity that makes Qanon look reasonable and because there is no way National can win without ACT, every vote to National empowers ACT.

David Seymour is a very funny, very clever, very talented politician who desperately wants what the humans call, ‘l-o-v-e’.

He doesn’t want to be in Parliament for one second longer than he has to.

He wants to get out of politics and get paid enormous money in the corporate world and maybe find a friend.

In short, David is a wide eyed idealogical mouth foamer who feels honour bound to mutilate the State so that it’s too wounded to ever grow back.

It’s called the Milton Friedman Prune.

David is a man in a hurry to try and get a life before politics robs him of one, so when he puts out these blistering policy directions that would cause enormous damage and carnage to the social infrastructure that so many people desperately require every day to survive, you best fucking believe he would do it in the blink of a sociopath’s eye.

While TDB has been pointing out that the Wellington Bureaucracy certainly do control policy and have far too much influence for their own self interest, we argue conquering that requires a plan to use tasers on their most sensitive areas to advance a left wing economic policy platform. It doesn’t require taking a chainsaw to the entire capacity of the State and calling that blunt force trauma amputation surgical!

David is throwing the baby, the bath, the little plastic toys, the soap and the entire toilet out with the bathwater.

I don’t see why the nation has to suffer another hard right neoliberal hatchet job on the State’s capacity to help people just because David Seymour wants to get laid now.

David wants to hand on heart be able to tell Satan that he did all he could to mutilate the State before he leaves for a life of first class travel and disappointed in-laws.

 

This is how the National Party see themselves swallowing ACT in the next election, but when you dance with the Devil, the Devil doesn’t change – you do

Christopher Luxon & National: People are pissed off with everything because we’ve all been through hell over the last couple of years thanks to the pandemic. Of course we are angry, and tired and fearful and angry, really, really, angry and Jacinda is getting lots of it in the neck and Labour are sliding in the Polls.

In steps Christian Lex Luthor, Christopher Luxon.

Sure, he can do the CEO 45 second sound bite but when actually pushed on details ends up shooting himself in the foot with some boofhead reactionary bullshit. He has no intellectual curiosity because Christopher knows his evangelical God loves him and his 7 properties are evidence that prosperity Jesus blessed him.

He’s a white Brian Tamaki in less leather.

Christopher only cares about the Pilots, the first class travellers and his relationship with God.

It is his certainty that National are selling to a frightened NZ, not his ideas or policy.

Christopher doesn’t have time for bottom feeders and policy is for little people which is the real danger. David Seymour is far far far far far far smarter than boofhead and will get all his mutilation of the state through without Luxon even being aware it’s happening.

The yellow quick fox will jump over the lazy blue dog.

Luxon has nothing to offer other than everything to his God.

 

Greens: They got to ‘shine’ at the meaningless climate crisis response earlier in the week. They announced their sophistry around emissions to make NZ carbon neutral by 2050 as our solution to the climate crisis. I say sophistry because it is. If you believe as I do that the climate crisis is an existential threat to our species you will note that:

  • By 2030, over 50% of the oceans will be collapsing as bio-habitats.
  • By 2030, 122million will be driven into extreme poverty as  direct result of climate change.
  • By 2030, 100million will die as a direct consequence of climate change.
  • By 2030, even if the Paris Agreement is actually implemented, we will see a planet warm to 3.4 degrees by the end of this century
  • By 2030, the global annual cost of global warming will be $3trillion.
  • By 2030, the number of extremely hot days — classified as maximum temperatures of more than 35C that can kill— are tipped to climb in all capital cities.

To appreciate how weak the Government’s proposals are, National and BusinessNZ have already signalled their support, which begs the question, if James Shaw yawns in a carbon sink forest, did the climate notice?

If you think being carbon neutral by 2050 is the solution, you are part of the problem.

There are 10million cows in NZ,  a cow produces 14times faecal load as a human, that’s equivalent to 140million people shitting into our waterways – where’s the realisation of that in this emissions plan?

We are not looking at true energy self sustainability utilising solar, wind or tidal technology.

We are not funding community resilience or decentralised food supply chains.

We are doing very, very, very little to combat the true scale and danger of the climate crisis.

 

Public Transport Users: The bottom 25% of NZ spend almost 30% on transport each week, free public transport is a way to put money right back into the pockets of the poor without the malicious spiteful WINZ or MSD clawing any of it back. Taking large numbers of car users off the roads and onto the buses allows those who use the roads more efficiency so it’s a win win for car uses and bus users. Unfortunately Labour have decided not to make public transport free and are only extending it to community service card holders which makes public transport free for people who you don’t want to sit to next on the bus which makes you drive your car instead. It’s like Labour said to itself, ‘how can we turn a good idea and fuck it up’. See I don’t mind sitting next to someone who smells and is talking to themselves because the ride is free for me as well, but when I  have to pay for the privilege of sitting next to someone talking to themselves while smelling really bad, w-e-l-l back into a car for me, am I Right? Counter productive public transport policy, standing ovation Labour, standing ovation.

 

Pharmac users: Once again they get fucked by the petty tyrant bureaucrats who seem to get off on denying sick people life saving medicines.

 

Environment: Burning.

 

Fairer Future anti-poverty coalition has graded the Budget

Beneficiaries: They get free public transport, and some solo parents don’t have to face MSD clawbacks on child support payments, but over all, their exclusion from the one off $350 because they’ve had winter energy payments seems cruel. For a group who are experiencing vast pressures and stresses, this budget does very little.

 

State Housing: As John Minto painfully points out

The $221m for Affordable Housing Fund is to get the children of the middle class into their first home. The other three amounts are for state housing and social housing providers and if taken together ($1.43b) would build just 5,000 homes – in practice a hell of a lot less.

How does that address the 25,500 – and growing – state house waiting list? It doesn’t and Labour is happy to keep it this way.

In essence, by keep down the number of state houses the government is bolstering the incomes of middle-class New Zealanders who have rental properties. Keeping the housing supply tight for low-income families forces these families to stay in private sector rentals and pay impossible rents. The government then subsidises these impossibly high rents through the accommodation supplement rather than build state houses themselves.

For those on low-incomes this is a landlord’s budget.

…he’s right.

 

PREDICTIONS

Rather than fully fund universal services like public transport or free school breakfasts and lunches or break up the supermarket duopoly, rather than build more State Houses to meet the need of the 25 000 on waiting lists or do something meaningful on affordable housing, rather than any of that, Labour have splashed out $350 which will be evaporated immediately.

Great there is extra money for this and that, but it just seems to ignore the magnitude of events occurring now.

Before Putin invaded the Ukraine, global grain production had already plummeted in 2022 due to massive climate crisis global droughts impacting harvests and interrupting the agricultural calendar.

Russia & Ukraine produce 12% of all globally traded calories and the shut down of exports and war damage to farms has devastated food and fertilizer production which will trigger food riots throughout the Middle East and South America.

I’ve been arguing that our inflation will hit double digits by December because we are grossly underestimating the Apocalyptic impact of global War, Famine, Pestilence and Death.

There is an amalgamation of crises that are rushing together pushing the planet into a steep economic recession. Since 2008 the central banks have printed 25 Trillion to keep the Ponzi scheme from collapsing and that has artificially created the lowest interest rate in 5000 years.

5000 years!

The unwinding of that kind of pressure surely is going to be the event horizon of a Debt Black Hole?

A climate crisis that exacerbates an economic crisis that exacerbates a war crisis that exacerbates a pandemic crisis.

That’s a lot of Black Swans all ubering home.

In the light of the threats to us in the here and now, this budget trying to determine the future seems hopelessly compromised.

We are all losers in this budget.

This is NZ’s welfare ‘safety net’

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