BREAKING: New Roy Morgan Poll shows National/ACT overtaking Labour/Green

Hot on the heels of TV3’s shock Poll comes todays Roy Morgan Poll that shows National and ACT polling higher than Labour/Green.


ACT: 10%

LABOUR: 33.5%

GREEN: 10.5%


This places the Māori Party again as the possible king/queen makers.

Roy Morgan is still giving the Greens and ACT a lot more support than the bigger polls, I think ACT will benefit from Auckland right wing voters giving their electorate vote to National and their Party vote to ACT.

In light of the Greens’ ridiculous new non binary co-leadership model, only the most gelded of Wellington males will vote Green now and this problem with male voters is again highlighted by the Roy Morgan Poll…

Support for the Labour/ Greens coalition remains strong amongst women. Support for the Labour/ Greens coalition is at 54.5% for women aged 18-49 compared to only 38.5% support for National/ Act NZ. For women aged 50+ support is at 49.5% for the Labour/ Greens coalition compared to 43.5% for National/ Act NZ.

The smallest Parliamentary Opposition, the Maori Party, attracts the support of 2% of women including 3% of women aged 18-49 and 1.5% of women aged 50+.

There is a stark difference for men with 54% supporting National or Act NZ. In March 49% of men aged 18-49 supported National/ Act NZ compared to 40% that supported Labour/ Greens. For men aged 50+ there were 61.5% supporting National/ Act NZ compared to 30% supporting Labour/ Greens.

The Maori Party attracts only 0.5% support from men including 0.5% support of men aged 50+ but no support from men aged 18-49.
Support for the Greens is far higher amongst both younger women and younger men than their older counterparts. One-in-five women aged 18-49 (20%) and one-in-eight men aged 18-49 (12.5%) support the Greens compared to only 5% of women aged 50+ and just 4% of men aged 50+.


…Gender and all the culture war fun that brings will be a central fault line that erupts as the economic pressure really bites.

The Greens will herald their non-binary co-leadership model as progress, the wider electorate will see it as emblematic of a woke dogma that alienates far more than it can recruit at a time of peak economic anxiety.

Pure temple politics is fine until all the people you’ve denied into the temple are far larger than you can ever hope to be.

Oh and if Winston dodges the Grim Reaper over the next 18 months, NZ First are in and he will go with National thanks to Mallard’s crazy decision to trespass him from Parliament. 

This next election will be one of the most polarised in NZ history.

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